Predictions is a project by Hodl Hodl, it is a marketplace where you can go to create a contract with someone else, where the conditions of the payout depend on the outcome of a certain event. The payouts are only made in Bitcoin.
Your predictions can be associated with absolutely any event in the world, and payouts are only made with Bitcoin.
You can either create your own predictions offer, or accept an existing one, thus creating a predictions contract dedicated to a specific event. When a contract is created, Hodl Hodl generates multisig escrow addresses that both parties send bitcoins to, locking the bitcoins in escrow. Then, both parties wait for the outcome of the event, and once the event has taken place, both parties agree on the event’s outcome, and complete the contract. The side that correctly predicted the outcome releases all funds (including his counterparties) directly into his wallet.
In order to make a prediction, all you need is just an account - when you have registered on the platform, you can create a prediction offer dedicated to any event in the world, or you can disagree with an already existing prediction.
All contracts happen directly between users Bitcoin wallets. So, to use Predictions, you only need a Bitcoin wallet. You can choose which wallet you use. Everything else happens on the website.
Upon completion of every contract, we charge 5% of the amount that the losing side of the contract has locked in the escrow.
No, we are not holding your funds. You are trading directly with your counterparty. Hodl Hodl only holds one of the keys to the multisig escrow, which ensures safe trading for both parties.
On the “Profile” page, go to “Edit your profile” and then click "Change password".
Go to the "Profile" page, click on the button “Edit your profile” where you can type your new e-mail address into the "Email" field, and save your changes. You will then need to confirm the change by clicking the link we send to your old email address.
Two-factor authentication is an advanced level of security which makes it harder to gain access to your account.
On your “Profile” page, click the button "Edit your profile" and then click "Two-factor authentication". Follow the instructions.
You can use one of your printable backup codes to sign in which were created when you set up Two-factor authentication.
Invalid tokens are caused by incorrect clock settings on the device. Your clock must show the correct local time, date and time zone to work properly. Phones must be set to use internet time to make sure the clock is synced properly. If you do not wish to sync your clock, Android and Windows phones have an option to correct for time errors inside the Authenticator app properties.
Trusted devices is an added security measure to further protect your account. When it’s enabled, you're only allowed to log in from trusted devices.
To turn “Trusted Devices” on, go to your "Profile" page, click the button “Edit your profile” and mark the checkbox “Only trusted devices”.
After turning on this security feature, every time a new device attempts to access your account, you'll immediately be sent an email containing a unique code, which you'll have to enter on Hodl Hodl in order to access your account from the new device. If you have already confirmed a device - you won’t need to verify it again.
Also, after having entered the unique code, you’ll then be able to set your preferences to not remember a device from which you have logged in. Thus, requiring device confirmation upon the next login attempt from this device.
On the contract's page:
On other pages of the site:
An offer is basically a prediction related to the specific event, which indicates the position of the offer creator regarding the event outcome. Any user may accept any offer and create a contract.
To create an offer, press the button “Add new offer”, which can be found at:
All you need to create an offer is an account - once it’s created, you can freely make your own predictions and create offers, which will be subject to mandatory moderation from Hodl Hodl administration.
You can try predicting the price of a stock. Choose any public company, e.g. Google, and predict the price of its shares by, for example, the end of 2020.
If you’re long on renewable energy, you would probably expect the price of oil to fall at some point — predict when exactly.
If you are a fan of any sport, you can predict the outcome, let’s say, of the Champions League final next year, or the outcome of a UFC fight.
You can create predictions related to any event in the world, for which the outcome can be freely and publicly checked on the internet.
Every offer created on the Predictions platform passes mandatory moderation conducted by the administration of Hodl Hodl.
We moderate offers in order to avoid ambiguous, unclear predictions, as well as to avoid predictions related to illegal things.
Once an offer is approved, anyone is able to create a contract with you based on your offer.
You can have as many offers as you want, unless they are related to the same event, and the outcome you predict is not radically different from the other offers.
Escrow deposit window is the time within which both parties (you and your counterparty) must transfer funds from your wallets to the escrow addresses Hodl Hodl generated. In case the escrow deposit window has expired, and any one of the parties did not send the funds, the contract may be cancelled automatically.
Date and time of contract settlement specifies the exact moment, starting from which both parties will be obligated to agree on the outcome of the contract - whether they predicted the outcome correctly or not.
Offer’s can be either enabled or disabled. If the offer is disabled, then it has the status “Disabled” and it’s not visible in the offer list, nor available through the link.
Enabled offers can have two statuses:
Basically the offer status "Inactive" and the condition "Disabled" are almost exactly the same, with only one difference: if the offer is “Disabled” - then it cannot become “Active” unless you manually activate it. If the status of the offer is “Inactive” - then at some point in time, it’s status could automatically change to “Active”.
A contract is basically an agreement between both parties, that one of them will receive all of the locked funds by the end of the event, depending on the outcome of the event in question. When you accept an offer, or someone has accepted yours, you engage that contract.
To create the contract, choose one of the existing offers in the offer list, and simply accept it, completing all of the required fields on the offer’s page, or wait until another user accepts your offer, thus, creating a contract.
As with offer creation, all you need to create a contract is an account - once you have an account, you can freely accept existing offers or wait for other users to accept your offer.
You can have as many contracts as you want, we don’t limit our users.
Step 1. You create or accept an existing prediction offer, thus, creating a prediction contract.
Step 2. Contract is created, Hodl Hodl generates unique multisig escrows for it.
Step 3. Both contract parties deposit bitcoins in the escrow directly from their wallets.
Step 4. The outcome of the event is coming, and both parties decide: who was right & who was wrong.
Step 5. The right side releases bitcoins from multisig escrow directly to its wallet.
Successful completion: both parties agreed on the outcome of the contract, and the side that hasn’t predicted the outcome correctly, admitted this fact. Contract status in this case should be “Completed” & only one side receives all the funds.
Draw: for one reason or another, neither side predicted the outcome correctly, or the event has been canceled entirely. Contract status in this case should be “Completed” & both sides can refund their deposits.
Dispute: parties disagree about the contract, and Hodl Hodl administration interferes in the contract. Administration can either recognize a draw, or resolve the dispute in favor of one of the parties, after inspecting all the facts.
We don’t apply limits for the maximum trade amount, but limit the minimum to 0.001 bitcoins.
The payment password is an encryption key for the user's escrow key pair. Both parties create payment passwords during their first contract, and they use it in order to deposit or release Bitcoin to or from escrow.
Your account password is the password that you use to access your account, and to make changes to your profile.
Your payment password is used in order to deposit or release Bitcoin to or from escrow.
The payment password may be changed in your settings. We only allow you to change the payment password if you don’t have active contracts and/or funds locked in other contracts.
If a contract is cancelled before Bitcoin was sent to the escrow address, then nothing specific happens - both parties may continue using our platform, the same as prior to beginning the contract.
If a contract is cancelled, and the Bitcoin has already been sent to the escrow address, or was sent after the contract was cancelled, the sender has the option to refund directly to his Bitcoin address, which he specifies during the refund process. Refund transaction fees for delivering the Bitcoin to the sender’s address are deducted from the amount locked in escrow.
In the event of someone sending the wrong amount of Bitcoin to the escrow address, the contract will be automatically and immediately cancelled, once Hodl Hodl successfully broadcasts this transaction.
Depending on the amount of confirmations required by the contract, it could take some time for the transaction to be confirmed, and for the funds to appear in the multisig escrow address. Additionally, if the transaction backlog is high and blocks are full, transactions take more time to be included into a block. When the transaction is successfully broadcasted, you can click on the "Deposit transaction ID" link to check the transaction status. Hodl Hodl will inform both involved parties, as soon as the transaction is confirmed, and the funds are locked in escrow. Even if the escrow deposit window expires and your Bitcoin is still on the way, you will be able refund them back to your wallet.
You should try to contact your counterparty in the chatroom while your are on the contract page. In case the counterparty isn't answering - contract will automatically be cancelled once the escrow deposit window has expired, and you’ll be able to make a refund.
Deposit transaction ID is an ID of the Bitcoin transaction from the sender’s wallet to a multisig escrow address. By clicking on the "Deposit transaction ID" link, you'll be able to see details about the transaction on the blockchain.
Release transaction ID is an ID of the transaction from the multisig escrow to the address specified by the receiver. By clicking on the "Release transaction ID" link, you'll be able to see information about the transaction on the blockchain.
This address is required to participate in contracts: this is where you'll receive Bitcoin when you win the contract. This is also where you will receive Bitcoin if, you conduct a refund. You are able to change your address for every contract.
We strongly suggest you update your Bitcoin address from time to time. After you generate a new address in your wallet, you can go to the “Settings" page, and paste your new address into the "Bitcoin address" field, and then save the changes.
While you can change your Bitcoin address in your “ Settings” at any time, existing contracts will use the address that was there at the moment of contract creation (or the one you provided during contract creation).
In case the event has already happened, but your counterparty doesn’t choose the outcome of the contract - whether he was right or not - a dispute will automatically start 3 days after the settlement date (in case you don’t admit the defeat).
If both parties choose a contract outcome that contradicts each other (e.g. you’re stating you won, and your counterparty does the same), the dispute will start automatically.
If a dispute has been started in a predictions contract, the support manager will join you in the contract's chatroom within 10 hours after the dispute has started, study the case, and give you further instructions in order to resolve dispute.
Disputes are always resolved by Hodl Hodl administration.
Yes, Predictions supports SegWit in the scope of: